Artificial Intelligence is Chinas great hope for survival, and the USA is blocking China from the vital technology
05.02.2023 | Yishai Gelb
The rise of China as a global empire didn’t happen without the notice of the United States, the current global superpower. Over the past 500 years, there were 16 cases of a rising empire threatening to displace an existing power, and 12 of these circumstances ended in a military war.
A Military war usually comes after there is no choice. During the Cold War, the USA defeated the Soviet Union with economic warfare, and such is the game plan with China. We are currently in the first stage of war between China and the USA - the economic war. But what does it have to do with babies?
Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist, presents a theory that predicts the fall of China to be imminent due to serious demographic problems. Zeihan illustrates that in the past 40 years, China hasn't been reproducing enough to promise a future for the Chinees state. It is estimated that by the year 2100, Chiha will have lost 700 million people, nearly half of its population!
China realizes this to be an existential threat directly affecting the economy which is industrial and relies on human resources to keep it running. Not only is the population declining, but the amount of working-aged people is shrinking while the retired population is growing increasing government expenses and decreasing growth simultaneously.
It’s too late to try and birth more babies, and Immigration restrictions in China are harsh, besides the fact that people aren’t interested in moving to a police state of their own will. The solution is Artificial Intelligence (AI).
If you’ve ever heard that AI is the future, this is why. Artificial intelligence is destined to replace the low-tech human workers in all industries, from customer services to driving, but particularly manufacturing - the main driver of China's economy. AI can save China from self-collapsing, and the US knows this. The basic technological input for AI development is advancing semiconductors in the chips developing AI capabilities, and so the future of AI relies on sourcing, manufacturing, and developing ever-advancing chips and semiconductors. Cut off China's supplies to semi-conductor, and you block China's road to AI. Block China's road to AI and China’s entire economic system will implode.
The US government placed into law the restriction of any sales of chip manufacturing as well as the equipment used to produce and develop such chips in China. These restrictions are a death sentence to China which will no longer have the capability to continue the advances in AI. The Chinees would need to develop the machines that produce the semiconductor, and then make the chips. Such an endeavor is extremely difficult due to the highly sophisticated technological capabilities needed. China does not have these capabilities and is unlikely to develop such in the coming years. However, If the Chinees surprise the world and do end up achieving such a feat, then the US will face an unstoppable China. At the moment, this seems very unlikely, and the US currently has the upper hand in the battle between superpowers.
So what does Israel’s demography look like and what can we learn from it? Quick spoiler, Israel's real estate prices aren’t going to come down in the next 80 years.