Despite heavy sanctions from the West, the Russian forces are still advancing in Ukrain after 165 days of the war
Yishai Gelb | 07.08.2022
Despite heavy sanctions from the West, the Russian forces are still advancing in Ukrain after 165 days of the war. And over $1 billion a day are poring into the Russian economy, fueling the war mashing.
Sanctions work as long as they are enforced by the leader of the world order and executed by loyal countries. The goal of sanctions is to strangle a country's economy and force its leadership to change policy.
Despite heavy sanctions on Russia, the Russian federal bank projects that the economy will face an economic recession of just 4%-6% as opposed to the projected growth of 3%. The central bank projection is more optimistic than expected. Many believed that the sanctions would cause an 8%-10% economic turndown.
Russia's economy is fairing better than expected due to its massive revenues from importing fossil fuels. Despite the sanctions, Europe is still importing most of its energy needs from Russia, including natural gas, oil, and coal. In addition, India and China are major importers of Russian fuels.
The price hike in the second quarter added to an increasing revenue stream for Russia. Furthermore, as summer ends and winter nears, European states will increase their imports from Russia due to the high demand for heating people's homes. This will further increase Russian revenues, adding to their ability to fuel their aspirations in Ukraine. Simultaneously, the refugee problem in Ukraine will increase.
Putin hopes to end the war during the winter of 2022-2023. However, his economy will have a challenging time functioning much more than that. Sanctions on Russia's industry, imports,s, and exports ability are hurting most Russian citizens. Automobile factories, heavy industry, and exports shut down, becoming a heavy burden on the Russian people. As Russia continues to become an energy empire in decline, global warming and China are the two factors that can revive Russia and maintain its position as a significant power on the world stage.
Stay tuned for future reports on Russia's prospects for the future and how global warming might save Russia, and how China and Russia together do have the ability to end the West's world order.